The launch site
We will now turn our attention to the investigation into the launch site. In September 2016 the JIT announced its provisional conclusion that flight MH17 was shot down from an agricultural field near Pervomaiskyi. We have since explained that a wide-ranging investigation was conducted into various potential launch sites. We explained how the investigators examined other locations and why they ultimately concluded that flight MH17 was not shot down from any of those sites. We will now discuss the course of the investigation into the location near Pervomaiskyi.
Photo of the condensation trail
From the start, investigators secured various open-source materials that pointed to this location as the launch site. For example, on the day itself (17 July 2014) a photo of a condensation trail was shared on Twitter. This immediately led to public discussion about whether this photo showed a missile launch and where the condensation trail came from. On the basis of the landmarks shown in the photo, various parties, including the research collective Bellingcat, analysed where the trail could have originated. All these parties came to the same conclusion: a location south of Snizhne.
Witnesses
The investigative team tracked down the person who took the photo. The photographer and their partner were interviewed as witnesses in August 2014. According to their statement the photos were taken on 17 July 2014 from their flat in Torez. Shortly after the crash the photographer took more than 10 photos, including a number of a cloud of smoke in the direction of Hrabove, the area where MH17 crashed, and two of a condensation trail in another direction. We would like to show the court two of them. The first depicts the condensation trail, which can only be seen from close up. The second depicts the cloud of smoke from the crash site. According to the photographer and his partner, the condensation trail floated over their flat. Based on the direction from which the photo was taken, the landmarks it shows and the observation of an acquaintance, the photographer concluded independently that the condensation trail had come from a location south of Snizhne.
Photos condensation trail: KNMI
Viewing direction photo
Metadata
The witness’s camera and its memory card were seized for the investigation. First it was determined that the system date and time matched the actual date and time (Ukrainian summer time). Then the investigation team examined the metadata, concluding that both photos of the condensation trail were taken in quick succession, a little over five minutes after flight MH17 crashed. The first was taken at 16:25:41. The photo of the cloud of smoke shown here was taken just under five minutes later, according to the metadata, namely at 16:30:07.
Expert opinion
The NFI was asked to examine the memory card and the camera. Specifically, experts at the NFI looked into whether there were any indications that the secured digital photo files (Nikon Electronic Format files) had been manipulated and whether they knew of any software that could be used to manipulate this type of photo file.
Photos condensation trail: KNMIEnlarge image Photos condensation trail: KNMI
The photos were also submitted to the KNMI for examination. The KNMI examined whether the clouds shown on the photos of the condensation trail were consistent with the cloud patterns shown in satellite images. The KNMI also enlarged the contrast on the photo to better assess the shape of the condensation trail. This can be seen in the photo on the left. The KNMI concluded that the condensation trail was not a cloud that had formed in a natural way and moreover that it was inconsistent with a trail left by a high-flying aircraft. According to the KNMI the trail was moving in an upward direction. Finally, the KNMI investigated both the time that the photos were taken and the perspective, on the basis of the weather conditions and wind direction on 17 July 2014. In order to determine the wind direction the KNMI again made use of a video of the smoke cloud over the crash site.
Viewing direction photoEnlarge image Viewing direction photo
Summary
In summary, there has been extensive investigation aimed at validating the published photo of the condensation trail. That investigation yielded information about the nature of the trail and the time, location and perspective of the photo. We will show this again. This information is consistent with the main scenario, which posits that flight MH17 was shot down by a Buk missile from an agricultural field near Pervomaiskyi. You can see that scenario illustrated in this image, which shows the last location of flight MH17 on the basis of the flight data recorder and the launch site as specified in the main scenario. That launch site lies along the blue line indicating the perspective of the photo.
Scorch mark: mediaEnlarge image Scorch mark: media
Journalists
In that same area to the south of Snizhne, a number of pictures and videos were taken by journalists. One journalist shot a video on 22 July 2014 of a particular location near Pervomaiskyi. In the video he described finding scorched grass at that spot on that day (22 July 2014). According to the journalist the grass was scorched in an odd way. Photos of this location taken by another journalist were also secured. In the investigation this place was termed the ‘scorch mark’.
Intelligence services
In addition to examining information from journalists, the investigation team also studied reports by intelligence services. As discussed previously, the US embassy in Kyiv posted an image on Facebook on 22 July 2014 which illustrated the flight path of a Buk missile (SA-11), originating from a location on the ground near Snizhne. A short time before, the US president and Secretary of State had already spoken about the ‘evidence’ for and the ‘detection’ of a missile originating from DPR-controlled territory. As we have said, we subsequently (in 2016) received formal confirmation that the US intelligence services had detected the launch of a Buk missile on 17 July 2014, about six kilometres south of Snizhne.
In September 2014 the Dutch Defence Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) issued an official report, which designated a specific location as a possible launch site. This was the same location as the burned field that had previously been identified by journalists. Thus, there was every reason to further investigate this location near Pervomaiskyi, south of Snizhne.
Satellite images
Satellite images of this location were requested. Previously we spoke in general terms about the investigation of satellite images: how the investigation looked for discrepancies, such as fire damage, changes in vegetation and vehicle tracks, that could point to a missile launch. At the time, we explained that while there were no available images of this location for 17 July 2014, there were images for 16, 20 and 21 July.
When these satellite images were compared in the course of the investigation, clear differences could be seen between the one from 16 July and those from 20 and 21 July 2014.
First, in the satellite images from 20 and 21 July, there is a visible path of discolouration in the upper left corner of the agricultural field. This discolouration is consistent with scorched earth. There is no such discolouration in the satellite image from 16 July 2014. The investigation into the workings of the Buk system revealed that during the launch of a Buk missile, combustion gases are released at a very high temperature as a jet of flame. According to Almaz Antey, the company that manufactures the Buk, this combustion can cause a fire at the launch site. This burned area was then investigated further.
Using information about the wind speed and wind direction on 17 July 2014, the KNMI assessed how a fire at this location may have progressed. On the basis of this analysis the KNMI designated a specific location as the logical starting point of the fire. In the report this location is designated with the letter ‘B’. You can see this on the top photo.
The satellite images were then examined by an image analyst at the Ministry of Defence. According to the analyst, the image from 20 July 2014 shows track marks that are absent from the satellite photos of 16 July 2014. This analyst also investigated the nature, width and route of those track marks. On that basis it was possible to determine whether they came from an agricultural vehicle or a vehicle with a caterpillar tread, such as a TELAR.
Finally, the European Space Agency (ESA) compared the satellite images of this agricultural field to images from other possible launch sites. It concluded that there is an anomalous patch of ground in one corner of the field, the area we previously referred to as the ‘top left corner’. ESA refers to this area as the ‘northwestern side’. In ESA’s opinion, too, the changes observed were consistent with a fire. ESA did not find any significant changes at other, alternative launch sites.
Validation investigation launch site, satellite imagery
Validation investigation launch site: witnesses and KNMI
Validation investigation launch site: Ministry of Defence
Validation investigation launch site: European Space Agency
Witnesses
The investigation into witnesses also turned up a number of relevant results. Various individuals were able to provide information about the general direction, or about a larger area from which the missile must have been launched, but not about a specific launch site. In the course of the investigation several witnesses were interviewed who stated that they had seen the missile itself or the condensation trail it left.
In addition, the investigation found two witnesses who were present at or near the launch site on 17 July when the missile was fired. In 2016 witness X48 stated that he had seen a missile being launched from an agricultural field near Pervomaiskyi on 17 July 2014. This witness indicated a specific location to the examining magistrate. This was the same location the KNMI had designated as the origin of the fire (point ‘B’).
Later in the investigation a second witness who was at this location on 17 July 2014 came forward. This was in response to an appeal for witnesses by the JIT. The witness in question, M58, was a DPR fighter and gave a detailed statement about the launch. The substance of these witness statements can be discussed during the consideration of the merits of the case. The investigation team conducted an in-depth validation of M58’s statement. As part of that process his statement was compared with information from other sources. The result of this analysis was added to the case file.
Telecom data
This branch of the investigation also involved the use of telecom data. For example, an intercepted telephone conversation that was included in the case file featured separatists discussing a missile they saw in the air. Moreover, the findings with regard to the route and the destination of the Buk-TELAR which was photographed and filmed on 17 July 2014 neatly dovetailed with the findings of the investigation into the launch site on the basis of other sources. Various intercepted phone conversations about the Buk transport specifically mentioned the location south of Snizhne as the destination.
On the basis of the telecom data, we also conducted extensive investigation involving anyone thought to have been in the vicinity of the launch site near Pervomaiskyi in the afternoon and evening of 17 July 2014. The results of this can be discussed during the consideration of the merits.
Calculating the launch site
The possible launch site was also investigated on the basis of other sources, including the nature of the damage sustained by flight MH17 and the characteristics of a Buk missile. We previously mentioned this in our discussion of the forensic investigation and the consideration of alternative launch sites. On the basis of extensive research the Netherlands Aerospace Centre (NLR) calculated a launch area of 75 square kilometres, to the southeast of MH17’s last position. The agricultural field near Pervomaiskyi falls within this area. The Belgian Royal Military Academy (RMA) calculated a launch area that partially overlaps with that calculated by the NLR. The agricultural field falls partially within this area. The specific part of the field that was identified by the KNMI and the witnesses as the launch site falls within the area calculated by the NLR and just outside the area calculated by the RMA.
Summary
To summarise: in order to establish the field near Pervomaiskyi as the launch site, the investigation team examined photos, journalists’ findings, satellite images, witness statements and telecom data. In addition, a forensic calculation was performed to determine the launch site. The findings of this investigation are highly consistent with those of the investigation concerning the route taken by the TELAR, on the basis of visual material, witness statements and telecom data. The agricultural field near Pervomaiskyi was the terminus of this route. All this was sufficient reason for the JIT to announce its provisional conclusion that MH17 had been shot down from this location.
